Australia’s aged care crisis has deepened, with official waitlists for Home Care Packages ballooning by 26 per cent in just three months.
New figures revealed during Senate Estimates on October 9 show 121,909 older Australians languishing on the waitlist at the end of September, up from 96,709 at the end of June. When combined with those awaiting initial assessments, the total number seeking care has climbed to 238,248, a stark rise from around 217,000 in mid-year.
This escalation persists despite the release of 3,665 packages out of 20,000 secured through Senate negotiations. The surge underscores a systemic shortfall: the government allocates fewer Home Care Packages annually than community demand requires, perpetuating a rationing model criticised by the Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety and a recent Senate inquiry.
The latest Senate Estimates data highlights the rapid growth in unmet needs. By the end of September, the official waitlist had jumped significantly, reflecting broader pressures on the home care system. The combined figure of over 238,000 people waiting either for assessment or a package points to a growing gap between supply and demand.
Experts attribute this to the annual rationing of packages, a practice that falls short of community requirements. Both the Royal Commission and the Senate inquiry into Aged Care Service Delivery have called for a shift to a demand-driven model to address these shortages.
Compounding the waitlist woes are mounting delays in assessments. At September’s end, 116,339 individuals were queued for evaluations, a slight dip from 121,596 in July but still alarmingly high. The Department of Health has suspended key performance indicators on assessment wait times for 12 months, raising concerns about accountability.
The Older Persons Advocacy Network reports cases where people endure up to 10 weeks for initial contact from assessment services, followed by two to nine additional months for a full review. In one example, an older person waited six months for any follow-up after applying via My Aged Care, during which their mobility deteriorated and mental health suffered, only gaining traction after advocate intervention.
These bottlenecks mean total waits for home care can stretch to 18 months, far exceeding median times that vary by region and provider. My Aged Care’s latest estimates, revised June 30, peg medium-priority allocations at nine to twelve months across all package levels, with high-priority cases resolved in under a month.
However, the influx of approvals has outpaced funded packages, prolonging queues.
With the Support at Home program set to replace the current system from November 1, fresh worries are emerging about its impact. The Senate inquiry report, handed down on October 1, flags risks including new co-payments that could force vulnerable seniors to forgo essentials, with fees potentially reaching $50 per shower.
The report also highlights unmodelled flow-on effects from closing the Community Home Support Program by July 2027, which currently assists more than 800,000 people with daily needs and could swell package demand further. The government concedes there is no clear path to meeting its three-month waitlist target by 2027.
The inquiry urges a move towards universal entitlement to care, aligning with Royal Commission recommendations, to prevent “significant, life-altering and sometimes fatal consequences” from rationing.
Senator Penny Allman-Payne, chair of the inquiry, emphasised the urgency:
“By mandating shortages of care, Labor will ensure people die on waitlists without the care they need. That should be unthinkable in a country like Australia, let alone deliberate government policy.”
She also highlighted equity issues: “In just over thirty days, harsh co-payments will mean thousands of older people will be forced to pay up to $50 just for help with a shower. Many will have to go without. Politicians on big salaries might not have to worry about who will look after them in their old age, but ordinary Australians do.”
As the November deadline looms, advocates and senators alike are pushing for Senate action, including a fresh probe into the Community Home Support Program’s phase-out. With waitlists at record highs and reforms under scrutiny, older Australians’ pleas for timely, affordable care grow ever more pressing. The government faces mounting pressure to bridge the gap and ensure dignity for those in need.
