As Melbourne approaches its fourth week of stage 4 lockdown, Premier Daniel Andrews has announced that it looks unlikely to be eased as long as COVID-19 testing rates continue to decline. Even as case numbers continue to fall, the concern is that as fewer people are being tested, the numbers we are seeing can not reliably be fully indicative of the state’s case numbers.
Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said that we were seeing a “good” overall trend in case numbers declining, following Tuesday’s report of 222 new cases. However, in the seven days prior to Monday, there were only 154,432 tests processed by pathology labs. While this sounds like a lot, that’s almost 30,000 fewer tests than the previous seven day period, marking a 17 per cent drop. Further, at large scale testing sites like shopping centres, drops of between 15 and 40 per cent have been recorded, despite an increase in testing capacity.
“What I’m trying to avoid here … is the case numbers come down to a point where we start to think about opening up and what that will look like, only to be unable to do that because the test numbers are too low for us to have clarity about just how much virus is out there,” said Mr Andrews.
While it’s understandable that as fewer people are leaving their homes, and so are not going to testing sites and clinics, the Victorian government has impressed that it’s still important to get tested if we have any hopes of lessening restrictions sooner rather than later. Health authorities have gone so far as to request that those with mild cold/flu like symptoms get checked. Whether it’s just a runny nose or a tickly throat, this year’s common cold and seasonal flu rates have all but disappeared, so this could be signs of a coronavirus infection.
“I hope we’re in the hundreds, not the 200s [for new daily cases] next week, but again it all depends on everyone doing the right thing, including stepping up for testing,” Professor Sutton said.
“We’re all concerned about the people who might not be so unwell as to need to see a GP or emergency department, or to be admitted to hospital – those are the individuals who might just have the beginning of a runny rose, just a tickly sore throat or the beginning of a cough.
“What I’m here to say is, it doesn’t have to be severe high fevers. It might be a very mild temperature. It doesn’t have to be days and days of coughs, it can be just the beginning of a cough … It can just be the very mildest of cold or flu-like symptoms.”
As case numbers drop, it is understandable to assume that the harsh restrictions will soon be lifted. However, if testing rates are dropping it is also possible that is why the case numbers are low, not because the infection is being stamped out. As the numbers drop, giving Melbournians hope that restrictions may lift and life can resume, it’s now more important than ever to get tested if you feel even slightly unwell. Now is not the time for complacency.
