A groundbreaking dataset released by HomeCaring, has laid bare a harsh reality: where you live in Australia determines whether you receive timely aged care, or none at all.
The Geography of Care report, mapping aged care and NDIS providers across every local government area (LGA), reveals stark disparities that expose deep flaws in the nation’s aged care funding models.
As the federal government prepares to launch the Support at Home program and implement the Aged Care Act 2024, these findings highlight an urgent need to rethink how resources are allocated to ensure no Australian is left behind.
The Geography of Care data paints a troubling picture of inequity. In Kwinana, Western Australia, just 0.19 aged care providers serve every 10,000 residents, one of the lowest rates in the country.
Wanneroo, also in WA, fares even worse, with a mere 0.09 home care providers per 10,000 people, despite a population exceeding 229,000. Palmerston in the Northern Territory struggles with just 0.24 aged care providers per 10,000, leaving its growing community critically underserved.
In contrast, inner-city areas enjoy provider densities four to five times higher, creating a postcode lottery where access to care hinges on location.
Western Australia and New South Wales bear the brunt of this crisis, accounting for 35.6% and 31% of Australia’s aged care deserts respectively. LGAs with populations over 20,000 and provider density in the lowest 20% nationwide are most at risk.
These gaps are not just numbers; they translate to real-world consequences. Older Australians in these areas face delays, travel long distances, or go without care entirely, undermining the person-centred principles at the heart of the Aged Care Act 2024.
The timing of the Geography of Care release is critical. The highly contentious Support at Home program will roll out in a number of weeks, claiming that it will deliver flexible, in-home care to seniors. Yet, with over 87,000 people already waiting for home care packages, the program risks falling short in areas where providers are scarce.
Rising costs further complicate the picture, with concerns that vulnerable seniors could be priced out of care as demand outstrips supply.
Current funding models exacerbate these challenges. Resources often flow to areas with existing infrastructure, typically inner-city hubs, leaving outer suburbs and regional centres like Kwinana, Wanneroo and Palmerston struggling to attract providers.
This approach fails to account for local need, particularly in fast-growing LGAs where populations are projected to surge. For example, Wanneroo’s low provider density is already a crisis, yet its population growth signals even greater strain in the coming decade.
HomeCaring’s Head of Customer, Mitch McBeath, argues that this misalignment demands a shift. “Care shouldn’t be determined by your postcode,” he said. “By making this data more digestible, we’re showing the priority zones for investment, provider incentives and infrastructure development.”
The Geography of Care underscores the need for data-led planning to direct funds where they are most needed, not just where systems are already in place.
The Aged Care Act 2024, designed to strengthen rights and improve access, promises a new era of person-centred care. However, without addressing the postcode lottery, these reforms risk becoming hollow promises for millions.
The Geography of Care data reveals that equitable access remains a distant goal in LGAs like Melton, Victoria (0.29 providers per 10,000) and Blacktown, New South Wales (low NDIS density despite 426,000 residents).
These areas, already underserved, face mounting pressure as Australia’s ageing population grows. Some 800,000 people used home support services in 2021–22, a figure set to rise as Baby Boomers age.
The data also raises questions about accountability. The Independent Health and Aged Care Pricing Authority (IHACPA), tasked with advising on pricing and costing, has a unique opportunity to integrate tools like the Geography of Care into its framework.
By aligning funding with local provider density and population demand, IHACPA could help close the gaps that leave communities stranded.
The Geography of Care is more than a dataset; it is a roadmap for reform. HomeCaring’s analysis, built on Freedom of Information data from the Department of Social Services and cross-referenced with ABS census figures, offers a clear view of where action is most urgent.
LGAs like Kwinana, Wanneroo and Palmerston are not just statistics; they are communities where seniors face delays or outright barriers to care. Fast-growing regions like Melton and Blacktown, already lagging, risk becoming tomorrow’s care deserts without intervention.
To address this, policymakers must prioritise localised, data-driven funding models. Incentives for providers to establish services in underserved LGAs, coupled with infrastructure investments, could begin to level the playing field.
The Geography of Care lays bare a systemic flaw: Australia’s aged care funding models are failing to deliver equitable access. As the nation embarks on ambitious reforms, the data serves as a wake-up call.
By integrating tools like HomeCaring’s map into planning and pricing decisions, the government can ensure that care reaches every corner of the country, not just the postcodes with the most providers.
Whilst some rural / remote areas may have additional providers ‘ on paper’ there is not the staffing to actually provide the service – so that percentage is skewed even further if you account for that.
We have 7 providers ‘on paper’ but only 3 actually provide a service and those that signed up them are seeking to move their services to the 3 that are local and provide services – but there is not enough staff in the towns to employ.
I live in Goondiwindi, 4390. I fully agree with the ‘Postcode’ findings. As an OAP, worried about increasing break/enter/assault rates, after lengthy enquires as to my eligibility for financial assistance to install security grills, I was informed that a ‘help scheme’ for this went no further West than Toowoomba, 4350. Although this is not really ‘aged care assistance’ as such, it does seem to illustrate a discrepancy.